The Ontario Sunshine List predictions for 2026 are already shaping up to be unusually significant. And if you’ve been following public-sector pay trends, you can probably feel it too—that sense that we’re about to cross another milestone. The list has been growing fast, and with inflation still hanging around, 2026 is expected to look different from anything we’ve seen before.
This preview walks you through what’s likely ahead: the first-ever jump past 400,000 disclosed employees, the heated conversation around raising the long-standing $100,000 threshold, and a quick look at who might land near the top.
As always, these predictions come from patterns we’ve seen in collective agreements, inflation trends, and year-over-year disclosures. Once the official dataset is released, we’ll update everything.
Prediction #1: The List Will Likely Pass 400,000 Employees
If you watched the 2024 Sunshine List closely, you probably noticed how quickly it grew — 377,665 employees made that edition. The average listed salary also climbed 10.8% year over year, which is the largest jump in over a decade.
With raises locked into several public-sector contracts and inflation still influencing wage floors, passing 400,000 employees in 2026 seems more like an inevitability than a question.
What’s Actually Driving the Growth?
A few forces stand out:
- Healthcare retention efforts: Hospitals leaned heavily on premiums, temporary incentives, and contract adjustments to keep nurses and specialized medical staff. Those boosts pushed thousands of roles over the $100,000 mark.
- COLA agreements in education and municipal services: Cost-of-living adjustments negotiated in recent contracts will continue landing more teachers, custodial managers, planners, transit supervisors, and clerical leaders onto the list.
- Specialization creep: Many roles that once sat comfortably below six figures—IT analysts, senior early-childhood specialists, paramedic supervisors—are inching upward due to unindexed wage structures.
We’ll validate the final count as soon as the province publishes the 2026 dataset, but all the signals point to the Sunshine List’s largest expansion yet.
- Healthcare retention: Continued reliance on premiums, incentives, and contract adjustments for nurses and medical staff.
- COLAs in education & municipal services: Successful collective agreements locking in cost-of-living adjustments.
- Inflation & specialization: Median pay for specialized roles is inching toward the unindexed $100k mark.
Note: PublicPayPulse will validate these projections when the official 2026 list is released.
Prediction #2: The $200,000 Threshold Debate
Since 1996, the Sunshine List threshold has stayed frozen at $100,000. To understand how outdated that number is, it helps to adjust it for inflation:
| Year / Context | Inflation-Adjusted Value of $100,000 | Policy Discussion |
|---|---|---|
| 1996 (Launch) | $100,000 | Intended to capture the top tier of earners (executive transparency). |
| 2024 (Reference) | ≈ $175,000 | The list now includes many non-executive specialized roles. |
| 2026 (Projected) | ≈ $182,000 | Renewed calls to raise the cap; $200,000 widely discussed to restore original intent. |
You’ve probably noticed how many job titles now appear on the list that were never considered “high earners” in the 1990s. For example:
- High school principals
- Veteran police sergeants
- Mid-level managers in health, education, and municipalities
These roles routinely cross $100,000 today, largely because wages climbed while the threshold didn’t.
That’s where the $200,000 conversation comes in. It’s starting to gain traction again, partly because $200,000 would roughly realign the list with its original purpose: tracking senior leadership and top earners—not long-serving specialists.
Some see a lower increase as more politically safe. But anything significantly under $182,000 ignores three decades of wage growth and cost-of-living realities.
Prediction #3: Who Tops the List
Executives at Ontario Power Generation (OPG) have consistently appeared among the highest-paid public-sector employees. That likely won’t change in 2026, but two other organizations are worth watching:
- University Health Network (UHN): Large hospital systems are navigating leadership turnover and intense competition for executive talent.
- Metrolinx: With megaprojects underway, senior transit executives may see compensation shifts reflecting project scale and responsibility.
Based on recent filings, expect the top-tier salaries to remain in the $1.5M–$2.5M range—especially for roles tied to billion-dollar capital programs and system-wide operations.
What to Watch for in Spring 2026
When the Sunshine List is released, two numbers will tell the biggest story:
- Total employees disclosed: Whether the list finally crosses the 400,000 threshold.
- Threshold pressure: Whether the $200,000 conversation gains enough momentum for policymakers to seriously consider adjusting the legislated cap.
We’ll update our dashboards and trend pages as soon as the new disclosures drop. If you want a deeper look into Sunshine List history, compensation patterns, or public-sector workforce insights, you can browse more articles at https://publicpaypulse.com/public-sector-insights/.