The Ontario Workforce Demographics 2026 data paints a pretty steady picture of the Ontario Public Service (OPS). You won’t find dramatic swings or sudden jolts, but if you read between the lines, you can see how the organization is quietly changing. And honestly, these slow shifts often say more about the future than the big moments do.
After digging through OPS workforce data from 2015 to 2025 — and layering in what’s most likely for 2026 — here’s what the next year really looks like.
A Workforce Settling Into Its New Shape
The OPS ended 2025 with 74,266 full-time-equivalent roles, the largest count to date and about 11% higher than a decade earlier. But the pace of growth has slowed down sharply.
Between 2015 and 2020, the OPS added roughly 3,200 FTEs—about 1% per year.
Between 2020 and 2025, it added just 1,000 FTEs, mostly in healthcare, corrections, and IT.
So, instead of expanding, the OPS now looks more like a “steady-state” employer. Most future hiring will simply replace retiring staff rather than grow programs. For 2026, a small bump toward 74,500–75,000 FTEs seems likely.
Salaries Keep Rising — Largely in Step With Inflation
Average OPS pay grew from $78,449 in 2015 to $99,373 in 2025 — a 26% increase.
Over the same period, Canada experienced 27.84% cumulative inflation, meaning OPS salaries have grown almost exactly in line with rising prices.
The median salary rose from $71,353 to $91,125, which shows meaningful compression in lower and mid-range pay bands. That’s typical in a large, unionized environment where catch-up adjustments ripple slowly across classifications.
Given past patterns, the average OPS salary could exceed $105,000 in 2026, pushing more positions into Sunshine List territory even when job responsibilities haven’t changed.
The Gender Pay Gap: Shrinking, But Gradually
The gender pay gap inside the OPS is narrowing — just slowly.
- 2015 gap: ~13%
- 2025 gap: Just under 9%
- Female average salary (2025): $95,851
- Male average salary (2025): $104,937
If the current pace holds, the gap could shrink to 7–8% by 2027. Much of what remains is tied to job distribution — especially in specialized or legacy management roles — rather than base pay.
Representation in Management: Getting Closer to Balance
Women make up around 55% of the OPS workforce, but only 52–53% of managers. That’s improved by roughly five percentage points over the last decade, but parity hasn’t quite arrived yet.
If trends continue, management could reach gender parity by 2028 — without any major policy shifts.
For more context on broader public-sector trends, you can browse related articles at
PublicPayPulse’s Public Sector Insights:
https://publicpaypulse.com/public-sector-insights/
The OPS Is Getting Older, Not Younger
One of the clearest findings in the Ontario Workforce Demographics 2026 outlook is the age distribution.
- Average age: ~44 years
- Average tenure: ~11 years
- Regular staff age: ~45.5
- Non-regular staff age: ~37.4
These numbers have hardly budged since 2018. And when an organization stays this stable, it usually means retirement—not attrition—drives most turnover. Expect 2–3% annual turnover as long-serving staff retire.
If you’re interested in how this compares to other sectors, the article on public-sector advantages offers helpful context:
https://publicpaypulse.com/public-sector-insights/2025/10/19/advantages-of-working-in-the-public-sector/
Sick Leave and Wellness: Flat on the Surface, Shifting Below
Average sick leave sits at about 10 days per year, unchanged for almost a decade. But the share of employees using six or more sick days has crept up. That’s consistent with what many organizations are seeing: mental-health-related absences rising while short-term physical illness stays relatively stable.
Authoritative reference:
Statistics Canada – labour and wellness indicators
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca
What Ontario Workforce Demographics 2026 Suggest
Here’s a snapshot of the OPS’s near-term trajectory:
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total FTEs | 74,266 | 74,700 | 75,200 |
| Average Salary | $99,373 | $104,000 | $108,500 |
| Median Salary | $91,125 | $95,000 | $98,000 |
| Gender Pay Gap | ~9% | ~8.5% | ~7.5% |
| Average Age | ~44 | ~44 | ~44 |
| Female Share | ~51.3% | ~51.5% | ~51.8% |
To explore how these patterns connect to Sunshine List expectations, you may want to read:
https://publicpaypulse.com/public-sector-insights/2025/11/23/ontario-sunshine-list-predictions-2026/
The Bigger Picture for 2026
If you zoom out, the story is simple: the OPS is stable.
Not shrinking, not expanding—just adjusting slowly to the realities of inflation, a mature workforce, and the long arc toward pay equity.
Salaries will rise because experience levels are high.
Representation will keep improving in small increments.
And the Sunshine List will continue to expand because inflation keeps lifting salaries over the threshold.
The Ontario Workforce Demographics 2026 outlook shows an OPS that’s simply settling into its next decade — slightly smaller, slightly better paid, and gradually more balanced.